NEW YORK / RankWire.AI / – On Monday, the U.S. stock bull market entered its fifth year after a period of continuous gains. According to Truist analysis, the S&P 500 has increased roughly 119% from its bear-market closing low on Oct. 12, 2022. That session’s close at 3,577.03 marked its weakest since November 2020. By Friday, the index had closed at 7,811.54, representing a 14.1% rise for 2026, with a weekly gain of 1.2%.
This current period marks the 11th bull market since the 1950s, with it being the seventh to endure for at least four years. Its 119% increase is below the 184% average gain observed across all studied bull markets. For comparison, the 2009-to-2020 cycle experienced a 401% rise, while the 1987-to-2000 rally grew 582%. These previous long-term gains remain among the most significant in history.
Historically, performances in the fifth year have generally been positive, although outcomes varied across individual cycles. Out of the 10 prior bull markets, six extended beyond their fourth anniversary. When markets reached a fifth year, average returns were about 12%, with a median of 15%. Historically, the maximum drawdown during fifth years averaged around 14%. It’s important to note that these figures refer to past cycles and do not predict the current market’s trajectory.
Corporate Earnings Support the Market’s Uptrend
The strength of corporate profits continues to be a key driver behind the ongoing market rally. FactSet reported that third-quarter S&P 500 earnings on October 9 were 29.6% higher than the same period last year. This marks the third consecutive quarter with earnings growth exceeding 25%. At the end of September, estimates indicated a 29.2% increase. Among 19 index companies that have reported, 84% surpassed analysts’ average earnings expectations, with their combined earnings beating estimates by 4.9%.
Furthermore, analysts anticipate robust profit growth through the end of 2026. For the fourth quarter, S&P 500 earnings are expected to increase by 27.6% compared to the previous year. The full-year earnings growth projection stands at 32.4%. Approximately 40% of upward revisions to 2026 earnings estimates are attributed to semiconductor and hardware firms. Barclays research also found these companies account for roughly 75% of the revisions to 2027 estimates year-to-date, indicating that technology-related companies continue to influence earnings expectations significantly.
Rising Interest Rates Coincide with Market Milestone
The ongoing rally occurs amid rising interest rates and elevated U.S. government bond yields. The Federal Reserve increased its federal funds target range by 25 basis points to 3.75% to 4.00% on September 16, citing solid economic growth despite persistent inflation. The Fed’s September projections indicated median economic growth of 2.3% in 2026 and an unemployment rate of 4.1%. The next policy meeting is scheduled for October 27 to October 28.
Long-term Treasury yields remain high as the stock market approaches its fifth year of gains. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield was at 5.24% on October 9, with the 30-year yield at 5.60%. On that day, the S&P 500 increased by 0.6% to close at 7,811.54. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.8%, while the Nasdaq Composite gained 0.6%. U.S. equities are nearing the five-year mark at near-record levels, supported by strong earnings growth and higher borrowing costs.
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